Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 4.075350 4.769753 5.537600 6.448365 7.497891 8.668075 10.070374
2025-10-12 3.047526 3.994030 5.153141 6.671053 8.599899 10.962052 14.066466
2025-10-19 2.404706 3.464006 4.875834 6.880938 9.638684 13.279048 18.425772
2025-10-26 1.919906 3.001300 4.551295 6.909968 10.377545 15.250368 22.568255
2025-11-02 1.516181 2.551399 4.135060 6.697333 10.691754 16.619811 26.000453
2025-11-09 1.193608 2.150137 3.703677 6.361785 10.731441 17.542152 28.834459
2025-11-16 0.988994 1.895605 3.450158 6.247316 11.068860 18.918066 32.479535
2025-11-23 0.836894 1.699708 3.255592 6.188253 11.467959 20.410577 36.449106
2025-11-30 0.759836 1.625549 3.258527 6.466184 12.466988 22.991119 42.492648
2025-12-07 0.664075 1.495633 3.135265 6.488841 13.001690 24.815874 47.408926
2025-12-14 0.578729 1.369971 2.998231 6.460242 13.427971 26.478968 52.192669
2025-12-21 0.510730 1.268018 2.891184 6.471650 13.924567 28.310959 57.457692
2025-12-28 0.496998 1.287854 3.045830 7.052693 15.645725 32.679281 68.046174
2026-01-04 0.454964 1.233933 3.033736 7.280348 16.677969 35.832231 76.634785
2026-01-11 0.417265 1.183149 3.020429 7.502967 17.727041 39.129434 85.851477
2026-01-18 0.372200 1.104275 2.928641 7.532668 18.357871 41.632598 93.699948
2026-01-25 0.319099 0.992542 2.738542 7.301534 18.371226 42.833082 98.941357
2026-02-01 0.267551 0.873448 2.508968 6.937488 18.025766 43.213556 102.452835
2026-02-08 0.234136 0.799404 2.383105 6.813278 18.230861 44.826318 108.816106
2026-02-15 0.207557 0.740051 2.286363 6.749197 18.572760 46.780047 116.129478
2026-02-22 0.197141 0.729626 2.324161 7.050599 19.870032 51.079397 129.224164
2026-03-01 0.178506 0.687921 2.264833 7.075165 20.454761 53.741291 138.726319
2026-03-08 0.160329 0.643530 2.189876 7.044153 20.888432 56.079130 147.673752